The Patidar community is back with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and has become a significant role in the Narendra Modi TsuNaMo of 156 seats in Gujarat. Patidars have always had the key to who forms the government. Even with the AAP, which made advances in Patidar areas in last year’s civic polls now vying for the Patidar vote, this large political majority has demonstrated that they are now aligning closely with the BJP.
Of the 182 seats in Gujarat, over 100 are impacted by Patidars votes, while at least 14 seats have over 30% Patidar percentages.
In most of the seats in South Gujarat and Saurashtra, the win or defeat is decided by Patidars. Divided into Leuva Patel and Kadva Patel sub-castes, Gujarat contains 70 per cent Leuva Patel and 30 per cent Kadva Patel. Leuva Patel is more in the areas of Saurashtra and Kutch. Apart from 11 districts of Saurashtra, individuals of the Patidar community have influence in Surat also.
This time, the BJP scored a resounding victory and won 47 out of 54 seats in Saurashtra-Kutch. In 2017, the BJP has won only 23 seats. While this time, Congress has been able to win only a dismal 3 seats, down from when, in 2017, Congress was at 30 seats including Kutch area. Moreover, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has got 4 seats here. In the 2012 elections, the BJP was able to gain 35 seats in this region.
The majority of the fresh faces were given a chance by the BJP to manage Saurashtra’s political landscape. Last time, BJP had to face defeat in many seats of Saurashtra by a very small margin. Only 786 votes separated the winning and losing parties in Dang, but Vijaybhai Rameshbhai Patel of the BJP defeated Mukesh Bhai of the Congress by a margin of roughly 20,000 votes.
Similarly, BJP had lost the Kaprada seat by just 170 votes previous time but this time BJP’s Jitu Bhai Chowdhary wrested this seat from Congress by a significant majority. In Saurashtra, the BJP also put bets on politicians like Kunwarjibhai Bavaliya who deserted the Congress. Kunwarjibhai Bavaliya also won the Jasdan seat.
In Rajkot, four sitting MLA’s were not given tickets this time, especially Rajkot West, from where Vijay Rupani contested and won and became CM Gujarat. The result of this is that this time BJP has captured all the eight seats in Rajkot.
The Patidars brought the BJP to power for the first time in Gujarat, when it formed the government in 1995 under the Patidar titan from Saurashtra, Keshubhai Patel. The sidelining of Keshubhai, amidst the ascension of Narendra Modi led to the dissatisfaction of the community with BJP, resulting in the Patidar quota movement of 2015-16. The Congress’s performance in 2017, winning 77 seats and reducing the BJP to 99, was seen as the direct result of Hardik Patel’s protests. But the BJP was able to push aside all anti-incumbency this time around.
First, by making Chief Minister Vijay Rupani resign and instating a Patidar, Bhupendra Bhai Patel, as the incumbent CM. Second, by bringing Hardik Patel into the BJP fold. That agitation has long since fizzled out, with Hardik in the BJP. Hardik Patel has won Viramgam by a margin of over 51,707 votes defeating Lakha Bharwad and Amarsinh Thakore. There are an estimated 3 lakh voters in Viramgam — 65,000 Thakors (OBC), 50,000 Patidars, 35,000 Dalits, 20,000 Muslims and 20,000 from the Bharwad and Rabari castes (OBC), 18,000 Kolis (OBC) members, 10,000 Karadia Rajputs (OBC).PM Modi’s outreach is the X-factor behind the Patidars swinging towards the BJP. On the last day of phase 1 campaigning, PM Modi conducted an 18-km road show in Varachha, a constituency where the AAP was running against the BJP and received more than 60% of the Patidar votes.