What does AAP’s current position on the national BJP alternative or “spoiler for Congress” look like?
AAP is now a third force in a traditionally bipolar state according to its election results in Gujarat, where it won five seats. It is now ready to be recognised as a national party.
Ahmedabad: With a 12.91 percent vote share in Gujarat and five assembly seats under its belt, the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has earned the tag of a state party in the coastal state.
Gujarat is the AAP’s fourth state of recognition, following Delhi, Punjab, and Goa. With this, the AAP is all set to become a national party after a formal nod from the Election Commission of India.
Elections to the 182-member Gujarat assembly were held in two phases on December 1 and 5 December.
Results declared Thursday show that the party’s performance has made the AAP a third force in a traditionally bipolar state, which it is likely to use as a launchpad to project itself as a national challenger to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, at the same time, experts believe the party is also emerging as “a national spoiler” for the Congress.
Tripura, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Telangana, Meghalaya, and Jammu & Kashmir are slated to go to polls next year.
Although the AAP has little presence in these states, it is likely to use the momentum from Gujarat to try to make inroads, particularly in Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana, which will hold elections in November or December next year.
National party status
According to the Election Commission, a party is accorded national status if its candidates secure at least six percent of the votes polled in four states or more and if it has at least four MPs in the Lok Sabha.
The AAP said it is a matter of pride that the party will be getting the coveted tag. “This would be happening for the first time in history that a party has become a national party in just 10 years,” senior AAP official and Delhi Deputy CM Manish Sisodia said in a statement Wednesday.
Prof. Hari Desai, a senior political analyst, said that the AAP was initially seen as a “vote cutter” in Gujarat for both the Congress and the BJP, depending on the seat and its demography. “Instead of becoming a challenger to Modi, it is now a spoiler for the Congress in the state.” “In regions like Saurashtra and in some seats in north Gujarat, it also ate into the BJP seats, but Kejriwal has done serious damage to the Congress vote bank in 48 seats,” he said.
Notably, out of the total of 48 seats in the Saurashtra region, the AAP won four seats, the BJP secured 39 seats, and the Congress won four.
This year’s election in Gujarat was a prestige fight for Modi and Shah, as the BJP’s numbers had been falling steadily in every election since 2002.
“BJP won with a majority of 127 seats in 2002. The post-Godhra riots elections scenario was sensitive. But since then, the numbers have continued to plummet. In 2007, it was 117 for the BJP and 115 in 2012. In 2017, BJP won 99 seats. The party was facing huge embarrassment,” said Desai.
“Gujarat, which has generally seen a fierce Congress-BJP battle and the elections won with a very small margin by either party, has seen a different picture. The AAP has played a role in spoiling the Congress’ electoral fortune,” he added.
Rahul Verma, a political analyst at the Center for Policy Research (CPR), liked to call the AAP “an emerging party at the national level.”
“At the moment, it is difficult to say if the AAP is emerging as a national challenger to the BJP or a national spoiler (for the Congress). It is too far-fetched of an assumption, but certainly it will eat into the Congress’ vote share in other states as well. I think it’s an emerging party at the national level.”
“However, none of this is a sure thing. It also depends on what kind of politics the AAP follows and how they act in the future.”
Congress and the BJP on AAP’s role
For Congress in Gujarat, the AAP’s challenge has been real. Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee working president Rutvik Makwana agreed that the AAP has harmed the party’s vote bank among backward groups like tribals and dalits.
“The AAP has played the role that it was supposed to play in Gujarat; there may have been some damage to the Congress vote bank, but not much. The AAP has been working on the principle that it wanted to affect the Congress vote bank and prevent it from gaining power; I don’t think it can be a challenger to the BJP.”
The BJP doesn’t consider the AAP a serious competition, with BJP spokesperson R. P. Singh said the Kejriwal-led party needs another 50 years to reach where the BJP is.
“Their Uttarakhand CM candidate Ajay Kothiyal joined the BJP. Tomorrow, even if some people win, they will also eventually come to the BJP. They are nowhere in the south, west, or in the bigger states. The Congress and the AAP work hand in hand—in Himachal, the AAP gave a clean walkover to the Congress, and in Gujarat, the Congress left the battle for the AAP,” he contended.
Another BJP spokesperson, Shehzad Poonawalla, echoed Singh’s sentiment. “We look at how we can strive to win every Indian’s mandate; in that scenario, who is second, third, or the challenger becomes inconsequential,” he said.