Gujarat was no exception to the Congress’ post-Independence rule over most Indian states. The Congress wasn’t just considered a political party that required victory in every election. After all, the grand old party served as the social and political engine behind the freedom movement and eventually established itself as the legitimate claimant to power.
This continued up until the country’s political landscape began to change in the late 1980s as a result of the Janata Party experiment about ten years earlier. This time, the Janata Dal entered the political scene on the platform of anti-Congressism and used the topic of OBC reservations as a stepping stone to political success in several states.
At this time, the BJP also felt the need to increase the number of Hindu voters, so its divisive chariot, driven by leader LK Advani, travelled from Somnath, in Gujarat, to Ayodhya, in Uttar Pradesh, where the party desired the construction of a Ram temple. Kamandal was up against Mandal.
At the expense of the Congress, which lost power in states like Gujarat, UP, and Bihar, both the Janata Dal and the BJP expanded. Then came the era of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah in the 2000s, who continued and accelerated Advani’s Hindutva politics in Gujarat and turned the western Indian state into a BJP stronghold.
A LAST FRONTIER
Gujarat has now been governed by the BJP for 27 years. But what is surprising is that the party, or its previous incarnation, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS), has never been able to win a cluster of seats, despite nearly three decades of unbroken rule or in decades prior.
They are
- Borsad (Anand district)
- Jhagadia (Bharuch)
- Vyara (Tapi)
- Bhiloda (Aravalli)
- Mahudha (Kheda)
- Anklav (Anand)
- Danilimda (Ahmedabad)
- Garbada (Dahod district)
- After that, there were Assembly districts suchKhedbrahma (Sabarkantha district) (Sabarkantha district)
Danta (Banaskantha) (Banaskantha)Dhoraji Jasdan (Rajkot) (Rajkot district). These seats have only been won by the BJP on a few times, and those were in by-elections that were held after the mid-2000s. But let’s concentrate on the uncharted areas for the time being.
A reasonable question to raise will be: Will the BJP be able to cross the last frontier as Gujarat goes to the polls in the first week of December? Let’s start from the very beginning.The north and western halves of the Bombay state, which had previously been called Maharashtra, were combined to establish Gujarat in 1960. The first Assembly election after Gujarat became a state was held in 1962.
THE POLLS ADVERTISEMENT FROM 1962
The Swatantra Party came in second with 26 seats, followed by the Praja Socialist Party with 7, and the Congress with 113 of the 154 seats.Ramanlal Dhanabhai Patel of the Congress was beaten by Maganbhai Vansjibhai Patel of the Swatantra Party.
Jhagadia: Vasawa Dhanuben Dalpatbhai of the Congress defeated Amarsang Govind Bhil of the Swatantra Party.
Pruthviraj Gangjibhai Chaudhari of the Congress won.
In Bhiloda, Jamnashanker Pujiram Bhatt of the Swatantra Party was beaten by Ganpatlal Jothalal Trivedi of the Congress.
THE 1967 ELECTION
Out of 168 seats, 93 were won by the Congress, and 66 by the Swatantra Party. The Bharatiya Jana Sangha (BJS) won its first seat from Rajkot 1 with CH Shukla.The BJS, a right-wing political party founded in 1951, was affiliated with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a nationalist volunteer group.
RD Patel of the Congress won the election over FD Patel of the Swatantra Party.
Jhagadia: ZR Vasava of the Congress defeated J Mansangbhai of the Swatantra Party.
Vyara: BS Gamit of the Congress defeated RV Chaudhari of the Swatantra Party.
Bhiloda: AJ Trivedi of the Swatantra Party defeated MK Shah of the Congress.
INDIRA’S DISAPPEARANCE
The Congress experienced instability in the latter half of the 1960s. The Congress dismissed Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1969 for breaking party rules. Indira Gandhi founded the Congress (R), often known as the Requisitionists Congress, when the party split. Congress (O), or the Old Congress, was the name of the opposing faction led by K Kamaraj.ADVERTISEMENT
The Congress (R) changed to the Congress (I) later in the 1970s, with the “I” standing for Indira. Over time, the Congress (I) transformed into the Indian National Congress as the Congress (O) united with the Janata Party. We’ll come back to these new discoveries. Let’s move on to the 1972 election in Gujarat.THE 1972 ELECTION
Out of 168 seats, 140 were won by the Congress. Congress (O) was only able to receive 16. The Jana Sangh now had a total of three. Its representatives from Sihor were Harisinhji Akhubha Gohil, Bhagvandas Narandas Amin, and Palanpur’s Lekhraj H Bachani.Borsad: Umedbhai Fatesinh Gohel of Congress defeated Gokalbhai Kashibhai Patel (O).
Jhagadia: Daudbhai B Dekhristi of the Congress was beaten by Chimanlal K Vasava of the Congress (O).
Amrsinh B. Chaudhari of the Congress defeated P. K. Nagjibhai Chaudhari in the Vyara election (O).
Mulshanker Ranchhoddas of Congress defeated Ganpatlal J Trivedi of Congress in Bhiloda (O).
Mahudha (new seat): Ahmadmiya M. Peejada of the Congress was defeated by Harmanbhai N. Patel of the Congress (O).
THE 1975 ELECTION
Out of 168 seats, the Congress was only able to win 75. The Jana Sangh’s vote total increased to 18, while the Congress (O) got 56 seats. 12 seats have been gained by the Kisan Mazdoor Lok Paksha. However, individuals from Borsdad to Mahudha rejected the Hindutva philosophy.Borsad: Congressman Patel Gokalbhai Kashibhai was defeated by Gohel Umedbhai Fatehsinh (O).
Deshmukh Dalpatsinh Amarsinh of the Congress was beaten by Vasava Zinabhai Ramsang of the Congress in Jhagadia (O).
Amarsinh Bhilabhai Chudhari of Congress defeated Pruthviraj Gangajibhai Chaudhari of Congress in the Vyara election (O).
Trivedi Ranchhodlal Parsottam of the Congress was beaten by Vyas Dhaneshwar Kalidas of the Congress (O).THE BORNING OF THE BJP India’s politics were altered by the national emergency enforced by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. To remove her from office in 1977, several anti-Congress groups and rebel Congress figures, notably Morarji Desai, banded together to form the Janata Party. The Janata Party also incorporated the BJS.
Even yet, Indira was ousted from office, and the Janata Party experiment was short-lived. Due to the issue of dual membership (in the political Janata Party and the social organisation RSS), the Jana Sangh faction left the Janata Party and founded the Bharatiya Janata Party in 1980. (BJP). These changes couldn’t escape the political scene in Gujarat.
THE 1980 VOTING
Out of 182, 141 seats were won by the Congress. The BJP won its first nine seats, while the Janata Party won 21. But once more, saffron politics found no supporters from Borsad to Mahudha. There was no lotus bloom.Borsad: The Congress (I) candidate Gohel Umedbhai Fatehsinh defeated the Janata Party candidate Patel Chaturbhai Bhailalbhai.
Vasava Khusalbhai Valjibhai of the Janata Party was defeated in Jhagadia by Vasava Ravadas Limjibhai of the Congress (I).
Chuaudhary Mohanbhai Ravajibhai of the Janata Party was beaten by Amarsinh Bhilabhai Chaudhary of the Congress (I).
Nathubhai G. Patel of the BJP was beaten by Trivedi Manubhai Ambashanker of the Congress (I) in Bhiloda.
Mahudha: Pathan Chhotekhan Bismilakhan of the Janata Party was beaten by Sodha Balvantsinh Sudhansinh of the Congress (I).
THE VOTES IN 1985
Gujarat saw the Congress retake power in 1985. But this wasn’t your typical victory. A record 149 out of the 182 seats in the state assembly were won by the party. Even the BJP hasn’t reached its vote share high of over 55%, which it received from voters. But shortly, a lot will start to change.The government’s reservation policy, which benefited the underprivileged classes, also caused protracted rioting in Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, and other locations in the state in 1985. These riots eventually turned into acts of sectarian violence. Except for the last frontier, the BJP’s power was expanding in Gujarat at the same time.
Borsad: Umedbhai Fatesinh Gohel of the Congress defeated Patel Indubhai Zaverbhai of the Janata Party.
Revadasbhai Limjibhai Vasava of the Congress beat Vasava Chhotubhai Amarsang of the Janata Party in Jhagadia.
Vyara: Patel Dhirubhai Bhenklabhai of the CPI lost to Amarsinh Bhilabhai Chaudhari of the Congress.
Bhiloda: Upendra Trivedi of the Congress defeated Khemabhai Hirabhai Patel of the Janata Party.
Mahudha: Parmar Vajasigh Kabhaibhai was beaten by Congress candidate Sodha Balwant Singh Sudhansingh.
KAMANDAL VS. MANDAL
Bofors posed a strong challenge to Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in the 1989 Lok Sabha elections. The opposition saw an opening and once more rushed to obtain the Janata political glue. The new Morarji Desai was VP Singh. The Janata Dal was created by combining the leftovers of the Janata Party with other anti-Congress groups. In addition to installing chief ministers in states, including Lalu Yadav in Bihar, the party won the elections. Gujarat was also playing out a similar plot.THE 1990 ELECTION
The final count for the Congress was just 33. The Janata Dal was a new political movement in Gujarat, as it was in several other states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and it held 70 seats. Along with the BJP, it formed the government (67). Chimanbhai Patel of the Janata Dal was the chief minister, and Keshubhai Patel of the BJP served as his deputy.However, Chimanbhai Patel left the partnership that same year and, with the assistance of Congress MLAs, continued in office. He even joined the grand old party, a move that is comparable to what just occurred in Maharashtra. Chhabildas Mehta of the Congress was sworn in as the chief minister following the passing of Chimanbhai Patel in 1994.
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However, despite the BJP’s strong performance in the 1990 elections, nothing changed in the uncharted regions, just like the Australian team’s pace and bounce under Allan Border’s leadership at the time proved useless in the arid regions of India.
Borsad: Madhavsinh Fulsinh Solanki of the Congress defeated Patel Jayantibhai Talsibhai of the BJP.
Vasava Chhotubhai Amarsangbhai of the JD beat Vasava Chandubhai Maganbhai of the Congress in Jhagadia.
Vyara: Chaudhary of the IND Amarsinh Zinabhai defeated Amarsinh Bhailabhai Chaudhary of the Congress.
Bhiloda: Upendra Trivedi of the Congress beat Patel Khemabhaihirabhai of the JD.
Mahudha: Thakor Natwarsinh Fulsinh of the Congress defeated Kishorsinh Solanki of the BJP.
THE 1995 ELECTION
Keshubhai Patel was elected chief minister in the following election in 1995 as the BJP highlighted the treachery and saw a rise in support to 121. Only somewhat, the Congress managed to improve its appalling performance. From Borsad to Mahudha, however, the storyline remained the same for the BJP.Borsad: Bharatbhai Madhavsinh Solanki of the Congress defeated Gohel Umedbhai Fatesinh of the IND.
In Jhagadia, Chhotubhai Amarsang Vasava of the IND beat Vasava Chandubhai Maganbhai of the BJP.
Vyara: Pratapbhai Babubhai Gamit of the IND defeated Amarsinh Zinabhai Chaudhary of the Congress.
Dr. Anil Joshiyara of the BJP defeated Upendra Trivedi of the Congress in Bhiloda.
Mahudha: Thakor Natvarsinh Fulsinh of the Congress defeated Kishorsinh Solanki of the BJP.
THE 1998 ELECTION
Keshubhai Patel ran for office again in 1998, albeit with a few less seats. It was still the 1950s in the Congress. The BJP’s last line of defence, however, remained invincible.Borsad: Solanki Bharatbhai Madhavsinh of the Congress defeated Patel Dilipbhai Narsinhbhai of the BJP.
Jhagadia: Chhotubhai Amarsang Vasava of the JD defeated Dalpatsinh Vasava of the Congress.
Vyara: Gamit Pratapbhai Babubhai of the Congress defeated Amarsinh Zinabhai Chaudhri of the BJP.
Upendra Trivedi of the IND beat Patel Devajibhai Visangbhai of the BJP in Bhiloda.
Mahudha: TThakor Natvarsinh Fulsinh of the Congress defeated Dr. Hansraj Mandanbhai of the AIRJP.
MODI ASSUMES CONTROL
Keshubhai Patel was ill and losing favour with the public. State byelections were lost by the BJP. To take over, Delhi sent Narendra Modi to Gujarat. The Godhra train fire and the Gujarat riots happened the next year. Eight months before his tenure was about to expire, CM Modi issued a call for new elections in response to criticism. The BJP achieved a resounding victory. There are just 51 seats in the Congress.THE 2002 ELECTION
But not even a Modi wave could alter the course of events. Once more, the BJP was rejected by the non-BJP seats. Even switching candidates failed.Borsad: Solanki Bharatbhai Madhavsinh of the Congress beat Raj Bairajben Bhairavsinh of the BJP.
Jhagadia: Chhotubhai Vasava of the JDU defeated Dalpatsinh Vasava of the Congress.
Vyara: Gamit Pratapbhai Babubhai of the IND was beaten by Chaudhary Tusharbhai Amarsinhbhai of the Congress.
Dr. Anil Joshiyara of the Congress defeated Upendra Trivedi of the BJP in Bhiloda.
Mahudha: Thakor Natvarsinh Fulsinh of the Congress defeated Tahelyani Kumar Meghraj of the BJP.
The BJP won Gujarat in both of the elections held there under CM Modi, in 2007 and 2002, but was powerless to influence the final frontier, which saw more such seats added to it in 2012 following a delimitation procedure. Examine these two elections.THE 2007 BORSAD ELECTION: Amitkumar Ajitkumar Chavda of the Congress defeated Gohil Pratapsinh Fatesinh of the BJP.
Jhagadia: Chhotubhai Vasava of the JDU beat Vasava Chandubhai Maganbhai of the Congress.
Punabhai Dhedabhai Gamit of the Congress defeated Gamit Pratapbhai Babubhai of the BJP in Vyara.
Anil Joshiyara of the Congress defeated Chaudhari Vipulbhai Mansinhbhai of the BJP in Bhiloda.
Mahudha: Suresh Bhatt of the BJP lost to Natvarsinh Fulsinh Thakor of the Congress.
THE BORSAD POLLS IN 2012: Rajendrasinh Dhirsinh Parmar defeated Solanki Naynaben Ramanbhai of the BJP.
Vasava Balubhai Chhotubhai of the Congress was beaten by Chhotubhai Vasava of the JDU.
Punabhai Dhedabhai Gamit of the Congress defeated Gamit Pratapbhai Babubhai of the BJP in Vyara.
Anil Joshiyara of the Congress defeated Nilaben Hasmukhbhai Madiya of the BJP in Bhiloda.
Mahudha: Natvarsinh Fulsinh Thakor of the Congress defeated Sodha Khumansinh Ratansinh of the BJP.
Anklav: Amit Chavda of the Congress defeated Solanki Jasavantsinh Amarsinh of the BJP.
Danilimda: Shailesh Manubhai Parmar of the Congress defeated Girish Parmar of the BJP.
Garbada: Rathod Mohindraben Ajitsinh of the BJP lost to Congress candidate Bariya Chandrikaben Chhaganbhai.
THE 2017 ELECTION
Even though the BJP faced a considerably tougher fight against the Congress in the 2017 elections than it did in the 2014 elections, Narendra Modi’s personal charm assured the BJP’s victory. In the meantime, where the saffron party had never triumphed, victory remained elusive.Borsad: Rajendrasinh Dhirsinh Parmar of the Congress defeated Solanki Naynaben Ramanbhai of the BJP.
In Jhagadia, Vasava Chhotubhai Amarsinh of the BTP beat Ravjibhai Ishvarbhai Vasava of the BJP.
Punabhai Dhedabhai Gamit of the Congress defeated Chaudhari Arvindbhai Rumsibhai of the BJP in Vyara.
Anil Joshiyara of the Congress defeated P.C. Baranda of the BJP in Bhiloda.
Mahudha: Bharatsinh Raysingbhai Parmar was beaten by Congress candidate Indrajitsinh Natvarsinh Parmar.
Anklav: Amit Chavda of the Congress defeated Hansakuvarba Janaksinh Raj of the BJP.
Danilimda: Shailesh Manubhai Parmar of the Congress defeated Jitubhai Vaghela of the BJP.
Garbada: Bhabhor Mahendrabhai Rameshbhai of the BJP lost to Congress candidate Bariya Chandrikaben Chhaganbhai.
During this time, the BJP also failed to win the Assembly elections in Khedbrahma, Danta, Jasdan, and Dhoraji. Only the byelections for Khedbrahma (1990), Danta (2007, 2009), Jasdan (2009, 2018), and Dhoraji were successful for it (2013)READ | An AIMIM candidate withdraws from consideration for the Bapunagar seat in Ahmedabad in favour of the Congress
BJP’S TRIBAL CLAIM
Why then, has the BJP been unable to capture these seats? In several of these seats, aboriginal people predominate. A few of them have been set aside for applicants from Scheduled Tribes. These are some of Gujarat’s 27 constituencies—traditional Congress supporters—that are heavily tribal in nature and dispersed over the state’s 14 eastern districts.Since the elections of 1962, Borsad has always supported the Congress. Jhagadia was held by the Congress till 1985, when the district cast six votes for the Janata Dal and four for the Bharatiya Tribal Party in 2017. Vyara has always supported rebels within the party or nominees to Congress.
One of the reasons is that tribal people, many of whose customs and beliefs frequently clash with right-wing propaganda, have not taken to Hindutva politics in large numbers. In certain places, like West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, even subaltern Hindutva has had only modest success.
For a party that is perceived as primarily catering to Hindu castes, it has proven challenging to win over tribals, even Dalits, and Muslims for the same reason—although there have been recent gains in states like Odisha, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra.
THEN WHAT?
The BJP is now hoping for a stronger performance than in 2017, when it won just eight tribal seats compared to the Congress’s fifteen. The party attempted to convey a message to the Scheduled Tribe, which makes up around 15% of the state’s population, by electing Droupadi Murmu as president of India.The BJP also hopes that the AAP’s participation in the Gujarat election, the results of which will be announced on December 8, will reduce the support for the Congress, which has been experiencing an existential crisis due to election losses, the resignations of some top leaders, and internal dissent.
Kanhaiya Kumar criticises the newly-entered AAP in the article “Gujarat polls between Congress and BJP”
It is understandable that Congressman Rahul Gandhi chose to interrupt his Bharat Jodo Yatra in order to campaign in Gujarat, where Prime Minister Modi and Union Home Minister Amit had already visited frequently.
Vote splits, however, function both ways. The AAP is largely a party focused on cities. The Congress is not betting heavily on urban centres because it has been performing better in rural areas. Therefore, because the BJP stands to lose more in urban areas, the stakes could not be higher. It is theoretically possible that the AAP will weaken the BJP in its urban base.
In fact, the BJP may split the vote in some cities, favouring the Congress, and long voting hours may have worn voters out. Polls of people’s opinions have also indicated that the APP is gaining ground in cities.
Many people are reminded of Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s statement from the inaugural BJP convention in 1980, which stated: “The darkness will disappear, the sun will come out, and the lotus will bloom,” as Gujarat prepares for a two-phase election.
What Vajpayee started was mostly finished by CM and later PM Modi. Can the lotus in Gujarat blossom more forcefully this time? On December 8 we shall know.
